No one knows where we are precisely in the cycle of this wretched China Virus. As the medical storm passes a financial storm looms on the horizon.
The China virus as it is becoming colloquially know is having a devastating effect on people’s lives. It is also having a devastating effect on the economy and our future financial recovery. It comes as no shock, if you pay out hundreds of billions in support from the coffers there will be precious little left to invest.
Countless companies, both small and large will fail unable to gain a foothold in the slippery slope that lies ahead as we climb out of the mire. Recriminations will abound over the behaviour of individuals, companies and even countries. Solidarity was the concept adopted by the many but ignored by the few who profiteered or believed the restrictions did not apply to them. They pay their taxes and demand freedom, damn the proletariat, damn the heroes.
The recovery from such a deep hit will be slow and painful. Winded, we have to get up onto one knee then slowly stand. The catch 22 then will be the investment needed to be injected into the productivity of the U.K. Our performance before the virus was not good, we were slowly slipping down the league tables. And now we have Brexit ahead. Like the sword of Damocles hovering we also have a golden opportunity to solve what can be the ideal platform to relaunching the U.K.
Supply from China has damaged the U.K. Cheaper, of improving quality this economic giant has awoken like the sleeping dragon. We had little incentive to invest in the U.K. when the everything was cheaper from the far east. Now the opportunity is to start again.
Europe has suffered similar consequences. The great EU economic solidarity has been found wanting during the virus outbreak. It presented Europe as 26 different countries, closing borders, establishing independent lock down regimes, stifling the supply of medical equipment, tests and outbidding each other for the supply of PPE. The eurozone is facing an extraordinary crisis with a huge investment programme required to bolster the euro currency. This is bound to create an equally fraught debate between the member countries. Britain has both the opportunity and daunting task of debating the terms of Brexit with turmoil surrounding every move.
The investment programme outlined in the recent budget is currently on the back burner, but if we use the recovery opportunity to level the north south divide by investing in productivity and novel engineering development we could emerge less dependent on overseas supply and injection t the budget’s comprehensive plan to thrive once again. Chaos is an amalgamation of danger and opportunity.